Tuesday, April 27, 2010

Before 2012 Or After 2012


As the dust settles down on the Iceland volcano and fights resume over Europe, those who travel frequently ask the question:How long will it be before the volcano starts erupting again? Iceland's volcano are known to be unpredictable, and there is a chance that this one keep blowing ash intermittently for a year.

Vulcanologist say that volcanoes will keep erupting in many places around the world, sometimes violently and some times less so. Once in a while-probably once in a century-a volcano will erupt with major force, throwing enormous qualities of ash into the atmosphere and impacting world climate significantly. A truly catastrophic eruption takes place less frequently- may be once in a few millennium-decimating large continents and plugging the world into a serious crisis for a while.

The Iceland volcanic eruption, near Eyajafjalla-joekull glacier, is a reminder that such eruptions, is a reminder that such eruptions, although rarer than earth-quakes, can have global consequences and need to be watched. Luckily for us, Volcanoes , unlike earth-quake give warning. The magnum has to come up and this process deformes the ground.
A volcano that is about to blow also tends to spew gases and produce earthquakes. "A volcanic eruption is often preceded by a swarm of earthquakes, sometimes a thousand small ones". Such earthquakes are not noticed by people but seismographs often pick them up.

Fortunately for us, prediction of volcanic eruptions has improved dramatically in recent times. Seismographs around the world pick up charges in seismic activity. Satellites can notice any ground deformation that precedes eruption."Satellites can monitor volcanoes around the world,"- This is useful because there is no ground observation for volcanoes in many countries.

Techniques such as interferometry can now pick up the tiniest of ground deformations around the world, provided we look when they happen. There is a rule of thumb in volcano logy: the longer the duration between two eruption, the more violent the eruption is likely to be. A big eruption is likely to happen at a place that has not seen eruption for a long time."- So, we need to build redundancies and not rely on one mode of transport.
Be that as it may, how do we make society take the threat seriously?

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